Article

Anastasia S. Pedenko, Junior Researcher, A.N. Severtsov Institute of Ecology and Evolution of the RAS (119071, Russia, Moscow, Leninsky pr., 33); iD ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0002-3149-5512; e-mail: stasya_pedenko@mail.ru
Sergey V. Volkov, PhD, Senior Researcher, A.N. Severtsov Institute of Ecology and Evolution of the RAS (119071, Russia, Moscow, Leninsky pr., 33); iD ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3795-9368; e-mail: owl_bird@mail.ru
Alexander V. Sharikov, PhD, Associate Professor, Department of Zoology and Ecology, Moscow Pedagogical State University (129164, Russia, Moscow, Kibalchicha Street, 6); iD ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9738-0948; e-mail: avsharikov@ya.ru

Pedenko A.S., Volkov S.V., Sharikov A.V. 2026. Long-term dynamics of small mammal populations in the Crane Homeland Sanctuary (Northern Moscow Region, European Russia). Nature Conservation Research 11(3): 10–21. https://dx.doi.org/10.24189/ncr.2026.016

Small mammals, or micromammals, play a central role in most terrestrial trophic networks, serving as key elements in ecosystem processes. These species, sensitive to environmental changes, are crucial in ecological studies due to their short life cycles and pronounced demographic responses. Cyclic fluctuations in abundance, common in many species across steppe, taiga, and tundra zones, have shifted in recent decades, with irregular dynamics linked to climate change. Despite this, fundamental aspects of population fluctuations, such as amplitude, periodicity and the diversity of underlying factors, remain poorly understood. Widely distributed species may show cyclic dynamics in some areas and irregular or outbreak-driven fluctuations in others. To identify periodic components and assess long-term trends, nonparametric statistical methods, spectral and autocorrelation analyses were used. The analysis covered 14 small mammal species in the Crane Homeland Sanctuary (northern Moscow Region, Russia) over the period from 2003 to 2023. The dominant species (relative abundance higher than 10% of total number of individuals) were six species, namely Sorex araneus, Microtus arvalis, M. oeconomus, Myodes glareolus, Sylvaemus uralensis, and Apodemus agrarius. The analysis of population dynamics revealed significant trends in seven species: an increase in abundance was observed in Sorex araneus (τ = 0.5), S. minutus (τ = 0.4), S. caecutiens (τ = 0.4), Myodes glareolus (τ = 0.6), Sylvaemus uralensis (τ = 0.4), and Micromys minutus (τ = 0.4), whereas Mus musculus showed a significant decrease in abundance (τ = -0.4). Autocorrelation analysis revealed periodic fluctuations in six species, including Sorex araneus, Microtus arvalis, M. oeconomus, Arvicola terrestris, Sylvaemus uralensis, and Micromys minutus. Most of these species exhibited 3-year cycles or their multiples (6-year and 9-year cycles), although even longer cycles were also detected. In Sylvaemus uralensis, population declines were observed at 13-year and 14-year intervals, whereas in Microtus oeconomus 2-year declines alternated with peaks every six years. Microtus arvalis had previously shown regular 3-year cycles, but during the last decade its population dynamics became non-cyclic. Other small mammal species did not exhibit statistically significant periodic fluctuations. Spectral analysis revealed phases of the cycle in three species, represented by Microtus arvalis, M. oeconomus, and Myodes glareolus. Among these species, cyclic fluctuations with a greater amplitude were characteristic of Microtus arvalis, cyclic fluctuations with an intermediate amplitude were characteristic of Myodes glareolus, whereas Microtus oeconomus exhibited low-amplitude cycles. In other small mammal species, cyclic fluctuations were either weakly expressed or absent. Most of the analysed species exhibited cycles with peaks every 3–4 years. Time-series analysis of community-level dynamics indicated that the small mammal community lacks pronounced population cycles; only a weak 3-year cycle slightly exceeded the confidence limit. The population dynamics and abundance of species were asynchronous, which smoothed overall community fluctuations and prevented the occurrence of large-amplitude outbreaks.

autocorrelation analysis, long-term monitoring, micromammals, periodicity, population cycles, spectral analysis

Received: 22.09.2025. Revised: 23.12.2025. Accepted: 11.01.2026.

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